Bibi and MBS Make a Play for Mideast Peace

Diplomatic ties are in the interests of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., but security threats could impede their efforts.

By Karen Elliott House - WSJ

Political normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is an idea whosetime has come. At least that's the increasingly optimistic view of Saudi and Israeli officials working to make it happen with the Biden administration’s support. But how realistic is it ? There's little doubt Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 38, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 73, want to reach a deal. They’ve met at least twice in secret since November 2020, and both have serious reasonsfor doing so.

Mr.Netanyahu seeks to secure the survival of the Jewish state. Diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia— the wealthiest, most dynamic Arab nation—would be as significant for Israel as its 1979 peace with Egypt which ended the threat of an Arab Israeli war. Such recognition would encourage much of the Islamic world to engage with Israel and establish a new home for Saudi investment.A deal would also deepen already substantial Israeli-Saudi intelligence and military cooperation.

Crown Prince Mohammed knows he can't create a modern high-tech economy without close links to Israeli technology and business. MBS envisions himself as the leader of a strong, economically integrated Mideast that serves as a bridge between Asia and Europe. Diplomatic relations with Israël would aid those goals, allowing the kingdom to lure much -needed Western investment and expertise and cementing MBS as the head of the second tier of world leaders.

For his part, Mr. Biden wants a splashy signing ceremony at the White House that would give him the ability to boast of historic success in the region. The president who once labeled Saudi Arabia a pariah now seems eager to make it a pillar of U.S. strategy in the Gulf.

Yet simply because three powerful men want the deal to happen doesn't mean it will. There are many moving parts, including what the Israelis will offer the Palestinians. Do concessions exist that would satisfy the crown prince without irreparably dividing Mr. Netanyahu's governing coalition ? Will Congress accede to Saudi Arabia's security demands ? Will Iran stay on the sidelines or send its proxies to ruin efforts at peace?

Sources in each nation are confident their diplomats will crack the code. Their shared goal is to conclude a tripartite agreement by January, before the U.S. presidential election gets under way or terrorists disrupt the talks.

The trio's efforts got a boost on Saturday when Group of 20 leaders agreed on a plan to build a shipping and rail corridor linking India to Europe through the Middle East. The railway would run through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, allowing goods to transit across the continents three weeks faster than by ship, according to a Saudi official. The kingdom already is building its section of the rail line. In addition to boosting trade, the corridor would include pipelines to deliver energy and fiber- optic cable for digital communication links. "This is a really big deal," Mr. Biden said in New Delhi.

It isn't as ground breaking as it sounds. Israel already has a pipeline that runs from Eilat on the Red Sea to the Mediterranean at Ashkelon. It was built in 1968 as a joint venture with Iran; Israel nationalized it in 1979 after the shah fell. After signing a peace agreement with the U.A.E. in 2020, Israel agreed to transport Emirati oil through the pipeline, and in June the managing company, Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Co., agreed to add fiber-optic cables along its route to enhance digital communication from Asia to Europe.

Yet a Saudi-Israeli peace deal would let the pipeline expand-potentially linking it with the Petroline, a Saudi pipeline that runs from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea at Yanbu. These efforts are meant to enhance global energy security, and financial security for Riyadh, by creating multiple ways to export oil while avoiding three choke points for ship transit at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal, each of which is vulnerable to attack by Iran.

As incremental normalization proceeds, two obstacles to formal diplomatic relations remain: the Palestinians, and Riyadh's demand for security guarantees from Washington.

Palestinian leadership under Mah moud Abbas, 87, is mired in corruption and paralyzed by its maximalist negotiating posture. In April Mr. Abbas met with the crown prince to deliver a long list of Palestinian demands, which the Saudis and Israelis alike have described as "unrealistic." MBS, who cut funding to the Palestinian Authority over its corrupt affairs several years ago, now offers the prospect of renewed assistance to entice them to bargain seriously. He has also named his ambassador to Jordan as his representative to the Palestinians.

Mr. Abbas seems to be engaging with Riyadh, if only to seek money and avoid blame for any failure at peace. His past efforts, however, have spoiled domestic support. According to a source in the kingdom, a recent Saudi government-spon- sored poll found that only 16% of Palestinians supported the Palestinian Authority. Many young Palestinians are eager for economic opportunity, not continued intransigence.

Almost any consequential concessions would bring down Israel's right-wing government. But Israeli and American sources believe that opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid could be persuaded to join a unity coalition to approve a peace deal with the Saudis if it included genuine progress on the Palestinian question. Such harmony is a tall order, but still a possibility, in a fractious democracy like Israel.

The biggest threat to the crown prince's regional ambition is Iran. Normalization with Israel would heighten that vulnerability. Religious and royal opponents at home would accuse MBS of selling out the Pales- tinians, and Tehran would feel jilted. "Our dilemma is this: Do we open ourselves to terrorist attacks to secure Saudi-Israeli peace ?" a Saudi official says.

MBS is therefore demanding that the U.S. offer the kingdom security guarantees, backed by Congress. Extending protection to Saudi Arabia - as America does with North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and Japan - isn't as controversial as it seems. NATO's Article 5 provision asserts that an armed attack against one is an attack against all. It doesn't necessarily trigger war, but rather requires a party to take "such action as it deems necessary, includ- ing the use of armed force." Several U.S. congressmen will meet with the crown prince to discuss these issues next month, according to a Saudi source. Whatever guarantees the U.S. gives, the real boost to Saudi Arabia's safety and prosperity would be diplomatic relations with Israel. Open partnership with Jerusalem on defense, economic development, technology and investment is a security guarantee that a future U.S. president or Congress can't take away.

If all this comes together, the Western world wins. That's still a big if - and even if the plan succeeds, challenges will remain. Peace wouldn't erase Palestinian opposi- tion to Israel's existence or end Iran's determination to destroy Is- rael and remove the Al Saud monarchy's control of the kingdom's oil and Islam holy sites.

Ms. House, a former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, is author of "On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past, Religion, Fault Lines-and Future."