Biden Administration Scrambles to Head Off Wider War Between Israel and Hezbollah

The White House diplomatic push comes after weeks of unsuccessful pressure to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza

By Michael R. Gordon, WSJ

WASHINGTON-A Biden administration push to curtail worsening border clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is running into major headwinds because of the difficulty the U.S. faces in arranging a cease-fire in Gaza, U.S. officials say.

The connections between the two fronts underscore the diplomatic conundrum facing the White House as it seeks to prevent a full-scale war that could draw in Iran and broaden the fighting well beyond Gaza.

The White House insists deescalation along Israel's northern frontier can't be conditional on an elusive cease-fire in Gaza and is mounting a major diplomatic effort to defuse tensions in the north after weeks of unsuccessful pressure on Hamas to agree to a halt in the fighting in the south.

But Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist group and an ally of Hamas, has intensified rocket and drone attacks in northern Israel in recent weeks, putting more pressure on the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which has vowed to end the threat and return some 70,000 citizens who have had to be evacuated.

Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's secretary-general, warned Israel in a televised address from Beirut earlier this month that "no place in the country is safe from our rockets."

"The logic of Nasrallah...is that it is all tied to Gaza, and until there is a cease-fire in Gaza the firing at Israel won't stop," a senior Biden administration official told reporters on Wednesday. "We frankly, completely reject this logic."

Efforts by the U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein to fashion an agreement that would include a pullback from the border by Hezbollah have so far fallen short.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met twice with Hochstein about Lebanon while he was in Washington this week for top-level meetings with White House, State Department and Pentagon officials.

"Israel wants to find a solution that will change the security situation in the north. We don't want war, but we are preparing for every scenario," Gallant told reporters Tuesday night. "We won't accept Hezbollah troops and military for mations on the border with Is rael. We won't accept threats to our northern communities." Hochstein held talks with Netanyahu in a visit to the Middle East last week that included a stop in Lebanon to meet senior officials.

Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged tit-for-tat fire since Oct. 7, when the Iran-aligned militia backed attacks by Hamas that sparked a war in Gaza, While both Hezbollah and Israel have been reluctant to turn hostilities into a bigger conflict, both are signaling they might escalate the fighting.

This month, Hezbollah published a video from what it said was a reconnaissance drone that had flown over the Israeli port in Haifa. Another Hezbollah drone was shot down by Israeli forces over the lower Galilee. Israeli forces, for their part, have been carrying out air strikes against Hezbollah commanders. Last week, the Israeli military approved a plan for a possible military operation against Hezbollah, though the operation would still need approval from the government, while Netanyahu said Israel would redeploy troops from Gaza to the Lebanese border in the near future.

The risk of escalation this week prompted foreign governments including Canada, Germany and the Netherlands to reiterate calls for their citizens to leave Lebanon, with some warning that intensified fighting could lead to the closure of commercial travel routes. For Israel, a fight against Hezbollah would be a far tougher task than the war it is waging against Hamas in Gaza, Experts estimate the Lebanese group has amassed an arsenal of more than 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which could reach Tel Aviv and other cities in Israel despite Israel's antimissile defenses. Hezbollah has launched more than 5,000 rockets, anti-tank missiles and explosive drones at Israel since the conflict started, according to the Israeli military. At least 338 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since October, according to a tally based on the group's statements. At least 95 Lebanese civilians also have been killed, according to Lebanese officials and the United Na tions Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

In addition to the thousands displaced from their homes, at least 17 Israeli soldiers and nine civilians have been killed because of the hostilities, according to Alma Research and Education Cen- ter, a nonprofit research center focusing on Is rael's northern border.

Senior U.S. officials say they believe Hez bollah, Israel and Iran don't want a full-fledged war that could dwarf the destruction in Gaza, but some fear the esca lating tensions between the sides could spiral out of control.

"Given concern about the devastating toll of another Hezbollah-Israel war and the possibility that Iran might join in, the Biden administration is making great diplomatic efforts to defer a conflagration that may ultimately be un avoidable," said David Schenker, who served as the top State Department official for the Middle East during the Trump administration.

U.S. officials insist their diplomatic efforts aren't stalled.

"We have a diplomatic process under way," the senior administration official told reporters. "We're in fairly intensive consultations with the Israelis, Lebanese and others."

In a sign those talks may be having an effect, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday said his country shouldn't become a battle-ground for military conflicts from the south. His remarks signal a shift from his stance in March, when he suggested a cease-fire in Gaza was essential for peace in Lebanon.

The ideas the U.S. is proposing to defuse the tensions include moving several thousand soldiers from the Lebanese Armed Forces into border areas vacated by Hezbollah, who would be required to pull back roughly 4.3 miles from the border, accord- ing to current and former officials. In addition, Schenker said, a U.N. peacekeeping force already deployed in southern Lebanon could be expanded. Israel would agree to curtail flying warplanes and drones over Lebanon in return for a Hezbollah pullback, he said.

To step up the pressure on Hezbollah to go along with a de-escalation deal, American officials have warned that Washington won't be in a position to hold the Israeli military back if diplomatic efforts falter.

"We fully support Israel and the defense of its national-security interests...against groups like Hezbollah," the senior administration official said.

But Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Sunday that the U.S. military would probably not be able to defend Israel against a major Hezbollah assault as successfully as it protected the country in April, when Iran attacked with ballistic missiles and drones.

With help from the U.S. and other countries, Israel intercepted nearly all of the more than 300 drones and ballistic and cruise missiles fired by Iran and its militia allies. But Hezbollah has large numbers of short-range rockets, which would be hard for the U.S. to intercept, and doing so might also trigger an Iranian response, Brown warned.