Iran Is Better Positioned to Launch Nuclear-Weapons Program, New U.S. Intelligence Assessment Says

U.S. officials say Iran isn’t currently seeking to build a nuclear device but is engaged in activities that could help it do so

By Laurence Norman, WSJ

Iran is pursuing research that has put it in a better position to launch a nuclear-weapons program, according to a new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies.

The shift in Washington's view of Iran's nuclear efforts comes at a critical time, with Iran having produced enough highly-enriched nuclear fuel for a few nuclear weapons.

Tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated since Iran threatened to strike Israel following the assassination of a leading Hamas figure in Tehran that the Iranians have blamed on the Israelis.

The U.S. intelligence community still believes that Iran isn't currently working to build a nuclear device, a U.S. official said. Nor does it have evidence that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, is considering resuming his country's nuclear-weapons program, which U.S. intelligence says was largely suspended in 2003.

But a July report to Congress from the director of national intelligence warned that Iran has "undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so."

The report omitted what has been a standard U.S. intelligence assertion for years: that Iran "isn't currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device."

President Biden has said the U.S. would never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, raising the possibility of military action if Washington was to determine that Tehran has embarked on an intensive effort to build a nuclear device. Iran says its nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.

One Republicans have alleged the Biden administration hasn't done enough to strengthen and enforce economic sanctions. Biden administration officials say Donald Trump's decision as president to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal has enabled Iran to speed up its nuclear activities.

Iran has rebuffed U.S. and European attempts to revive that nuclear deal, but U.S. of ficials are still in communication with Tehran.

Driving the change in the new intelligence assessment is scientific and engineering research work that Iran has been doing over the past year, experts say. That research "could shrink the knowledge gap Tehran faces in mastering the ability to build a weapon," though U.S. intelligence maintains it wouldn't shorten the time the country needs to make a weapon, the U.S. official said.

In the past, some of this work, which is continuing, might have been considered an indication that Tehran was pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, the U.S. official said. But U.S. intelligence agencies are re-examining their criteria for assessing Iran's nuclear activities in light of what it is learning about the program.

"Iran doesn't have an active military nuclear program," said a spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

U.S. officials provided no details regarding the nature of the work Iran is believed to be doing. However, in recent months there have been concerns among Israeli and U.S. officials about weaponization-related research being conducted by Iran, including computer modeling and metallurgy, according to peo- ple briefed on the issue.

Such work is part of a gray zone between putting in place the components for a nuclear weapon, such as producing highly enriched uranium and uranium metal production, and actually building a device. The Iranian research activities are generally dual-use work, allowing Tehran to claim the work is for civilian purposes. Iran's research isn't the only reason for concern. The U.S. assessment also notes "there has been a notable in crease this year in Iranian public statements about nu clear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo."

Even if Iran weren't to proceed with the development of a bomb, the intelligence report added, Tehran seeks to exploit international worry over the pace of its program "for negotiation leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure." Gary Samore, director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University, said, "Now that Iran has mastered the production of weapons-grade uranium, the next logical step is to resume weaponization activities to shorten the time needed to manufacture a nuclear device once a political decision is made." The former White House official during the Obama administration added, "Given the need for secrecy, it appears that Iran is proceed- ing very cautiously, which creates uncertainty and ambiguity about its intentions."

After the U.S. withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal-which had lifted most international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for tight but temporary curbs on its nuclear work-Iran massively expanded its uranium enrichment program.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last month that it would probably take Iran "one or two weeks" to produce enough weapons-grade en riched uranium for a nuclear weapon. Experts say Iran already has enough enriched uranium of various grades to be able to fuel multiple nuclear weapons within six months.

It also has an advanced missile program and has resumed work on critical components of building a nuclear warhead, such as producing uranium metal.

"I am prepared to accept the IC judgment that the supreme leader hasn't already made a decision to weaponize the program," said Ariel Levite, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment and a former Israeli official, refer ring to the U.S. intelligence community.

"But by the same token I am inclined to believe that he has at least not forbidden his scientists from engaging in activity that would allow them to take Iran to the uppermost level of a nuclear threshold," he said.

There is overwhelming evidence, including from the International Atomic Energy Agency and from archives seized by Israel in 2018, that Tehran had a comprehensive nuclear-weapons program until 2003. That past work included advances in many key areas of producing a warhead. It also included weaponization-relevant research.

While the U.S. assessed that Iran's core nuclear weapons work stopped in 2003, the U.N. atomic-agency watchdog has said Iran continued to do research work relevant to mastering a nuclear weapon after 2003. Some experts and officials believe Iran has continued that work throughout the past two decades in some fashion, edging closer to full mastery of building a bomb.

This research could include, for example, refining knowledge on neutron initiators to jump-start the chain reaction in a nuclear weapon, work on guidance systems for war-head-carrying missiles or on separation of a warhead from a missile, experts say.

The 2015 nuclear accord al- lowed international inspeсtions of locations where Iran might be carrying out such nuclear-related work. However, those inspections stopped as Iran wound back its commitments in response to the U.S. decision to leave the nuclear agreement in May 2018.

"The recently observed Iranian weaponization-related work may represent a tip of the iceberg of much more activity," said Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington.