Iran recalled senior commanders from Syria days before US strikes

Revolutionary Guard officers withdrawn to avoid further casualties and avert direct conflict with Washington

Andrew England in London, Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran and Raya Jalabi in Beirut - Foreign Policy

Iran pulled senior commanders of its Revolutionary Guard out of Syria days before the US launched strikes against Iranian-linked targets in the Arab state to prevent the elite force suffering further casualties.

Tehran took the decision to withdraw the commanders after US President Joe Biden blamed an Iran-backed militant group for a January 28 drone strike that killed three American soldiers at a base on the Jordan-Syrian border and vowed to respond, according to an Iranian official and two others briefed on the matter.

The guard officers had left Syria by the time Washington launched air strikes five days later, the people said, adding that it was a sign Tehran did not want to get drawn into a direct conflict with the US.

The US said it directly targeted Revolutionary Guard facilities in Syria for the first time since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October triggered hostilities across the region. It was the US’s biggest military response to attacks on its forces by Iranian-backed militants in the past four months.

The Iranian official said the decision to withdraw the commanders reflected a “change in tactics”, as nine guard officers had already been killed by Israeli strikes since October. An Iranian analyst affiliated to the Islamic regime said the guards were withdrawn to “prevent an escalation” with the US.

“Iran was concerned about the potential necessity to retaliate if more commanders were killed. The US also conveyed through indirect channels that it did not seek a conflict with Iran, a concern Iran shared,” the analyst said. “Once there is relative calm, these forces will return to Syria.”

Tehran was also keen to de-escalate tensions as it prepared for important parliamentary elections on March 1, the Iranian official added.

US officials gave no specific details about casualties after it launched its retaliatory strikes, but said no Iranians were believed to be killed in the attack. The US military said it hit 85 targets at seven facilities in Syria and Iraq associated with the Revolutionary Guard.

The Iraqi and Syrian governments said several dozen people were killed in the strikes, including civilians.

Iranian-backed militant groups in Iraq and Syria have launched more than 180 rocket and drone assaults against US troops in the region, while Hizbollah has traded almost daily fire with Israeli forces across the Israel-Lebanon border. Houthi rebels in Yemen have also targeted merchant ships and US naval vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Israel has also launched multiple air strikes against the Revolutionary Guard and Iranian-backed militants in Syria, and assassinated a Hamas leader and other members of the Palestinian group in Beirut. Israel rarely confirms or denies such strikes, but has stepped up attacks in Syria since the war erupted with Hamas.

Iran launched a missile attack last month against what it called an Israeli “espionage centre” in Erbil in northern Iraq in apparent retaliation for the Israeli strikes. But Tehran has insisted it does not seek direct conflict with either the US or Israel, Iranian officials and analysts say.

Tehran’s priority is to protect the security of the Islamic republic, while projecting its influence and hostility to Israel’s offensive in Gaza through the actions of the regional groups it backs, collectively dubbed the “Axis of Resistance”.

A person close to Hizbollah said the deadly strike on the US base had also caused the guards to keep a lower profile in Iraq and Lebanon, and deploy greater security close to installations linked to Iran in those countries.

Iran deployed forces in Syria to support President Bashar al-Assad after a 2011 popular uprising morphed into a civil war. Hizbollah, Tehran’s most powerful proxy force, also sent fighters to Syria during the civil war, and more than a dozen of its forces have been killed by Israeli strikes since October, the person close to the Lebanese group said.

Hizbollah has also pulled back some senior commanders in Iraq, where they liaise with Iranian-backed militias in the country, and has become cautious about its fighters’ movements in southern Lebanon, the person added.