Israel-Iran Confrontation Forces Gulf Powers to Choose Sides

Expanding conflict threatens delicate regional balance

By Summer Said and Stephen Kalin / WSJ

DUBAI—Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich Persian Gulf states have tried to avoid taking a position on America’s geopolitical rivalries in recent years, staying neutral in the Ukraine war and building ties with China. With Israel and Iran in open conflict, they might be forced to choose a side.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates struggled to stay on the sidelines when it became clear last week that Iran would attack Israel in retaliation for a strike in Syria that killed senior Iranian military officers.

The Saudis and Emiratis shared intelligence that contributed to an overwhelmingly successful defensive response to a sprawling Iranian air attack, Arab officials said. However, they stopped short of giving Washington everything it wanted, denying the U.S. and Israel use of their air space to intercept missiles and drones, the officials said.

The confrontation showed both countries how difficult it will be to keep striking a balance between their chief Middle East rival, Iran; their most important security partner, the U.S.; and Israel, a powerful military that the Saudis and Emiratis have grown closer to but that they both criticize over its conduct in its war in Gaza.

If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates and draws in the U.S., the Gulf Arab states likely would have a stark choice: Allow U.S. forces to launch attacks from bases in their countries and risk Iranian retaliation, or try to appease Iran and stay on the sidelines as they largely have done since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel plunged the Mideast into turmoil.

Since Saturday's assault, the U.A.E. has called for restraint and the need to achieve stability through diplomatic channels. "The region should avoid conflict at all costs, as it cannot sustain additional tensions and confrontations," a U.A.E. official said.

Adding to the complexity for Saudi Arabia is its push to strike a broad deal that would recognize Israel in exchange for security commitments from the U.S. and help with its nuclear program. The deal's momentum was stopped with the Gaza war, but the Saudis have indicated they still want better U.S. defense guarantees, which they feel Washington has abandoned in the past decade.

"Absent a U.S. commitment to their security, they would do their utmost to limit their cooperation and hide it from Iran," said Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official who worked on security cooperation in the Middle East and is a fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank.

The Saudis and the Emiratis this year declined to participate publicly in a U.S.-led maritime coalition to confront attacks on Red Sea shipping by Yemen's Houthi rebels, who threatened to hit participating countries. Along with Kuwait, they also have restricted the Pentagon from launching airstrikes against the Houthis from bases in their territory, U.S. defense and Arab officials say.

Gulf countries are wary of being seen by their populations as supporting Israel and the U.S. after more than six months of war in Gaza. But if the U.S. gets more deeply involved in a direct confrontation with Iran, Arab governments are likely to find their room to maneuver shrinking, Arab officials say.

"If Iran escalates directly against American assets...then it is a moment of reckoning," said Gregory Gause, a Middle East expert at Texas A&M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service. "Because then Washington says, 'If you want a partnership, you have to help us when we're the target in the same way that you expect us to help you when you're the target.' "

So far, Iran has said it doesn't intend to target the U.S., and Washington says it won't participate in an Israeli reprisal.

Gause said the Gulf states traditionally have fluctuated between fearing they would become collateral damage when Washington was aggressive with Iran, and fearing they would be abandoned when the U.S. became more conciliatory toward Tehran.

"This is just baked in the cake," he said. "It's not something that you can solve."

In recent years, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. have pursued detente with Iran after a period of severed ties. A China-brokered deal a year ago re-established Saudi-Iranian relations, and since the start of the conflict, the kingdom has been attempting to deter Iran and its proxies from turning the Gaza war into a wider conflict by offering cooperation and investments in the Iranian economy.