Israel, Iran Seek Deterrence but Risk Escalation

Each country wants to avoid looking weak, and that is raising the risk of a regional war

By Dov Lieber and Summer Said, WSJ

TEL Aviv - Israel's military has long followed a clear policy: When enemies strike, hit back so hard they won't do it again. That deterrence is no longer working.

Iran, after launching a massive missile-and-drone attack on Israel over the weekend, is threatening to strike again if Israel retaliates. Lebanese militia Hezbollah fires at Israeli forces nearly every day despite frequent poundings by Israel. And Hamas continues to launch rockets at Israel even after being bludgeoned after its Oct. 7 attacks on Israel.

With no side willing to compromise for fear of showing weakness, and all players seeking greater deterrence, the risk of stumbling into a regional war increases.

"If they continue to exchange blows, it's a slippery slope to a real escalation," said Ofer Fridman, a former Israeli officer and scholar of war studies at King's College London.

Deterrence - the principle that any attack will be met by a far more punishing response - is the foundation of defense for many countries. It has been one of three pillars of Israel's strategic culture for decades, Fridman said.

If deterrence fails, then Is rael relies on early warning of any attack. If both fail, then Israel seeks to rapidly inflict a crushing, even humiliating defeat on the battlefield so deterrence is restored and the adversary doesn't dare strike at Israel again - at least for many years.

"The Iranians will not be able to establish a new status of deterrence against the State of Israel," Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israeli commanders on Tuesday, his office said. Israeli Air Force planes "operate everywhere - the skies of the Middle East are 'open,' and any enemy that fights us will be hit, no matter where they may be."

Before Iran's attack, Israel threatened a major retaliation if Tehran struck.

After Iran launched drones but before its more dangerous ballistic missiles took off, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement, "Whoever harms us, we will harm them."

Iran is now using similar terms about potential Israeli retaliation. "The smallest action against Iran's interests will definitely be met with a severe, extensive and painful response against all its perpetrators," Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said.

Iran's drone-and-missile at tack on Israel departed from a yearslong regional military strategy, in which it built up a network of proxy militia groups that have allowed it to strike militarily stronger adversaries, particularly the U.S. and Israel, while minimizing the risk of attacks on Iranian soil.

"We have decided to create a new equation," the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, said on Sunday, adding that any strike on Iran's interests in the region would be met with direct attacks from Iran. The attack has raised the risk of an Israeli response and further cycles of violence between the two countries, military analysts said.

"Iran's moves are very calculated and choreographed. But at the same time, they're not risk-free," said Hamdi Malik, an associate fellow with ge the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and an expert on Iran's militia network. "Iran is willing to take some calculated risk."

In a sign Israel is trying to limit that risk, Israel. Israel assured assured Gulf states and other Arab countries Monday that its response to Iran's attack wouldn't endanger their security and likely would be limited in scope, regional Arab officials said on Tuesday.

Israel is likely to warn its Arab allies before it retaliates and could limit its attacks to Iran-linked facilities in Syria, they said.

Israel's Foreign Ministry on declined to comment.

Iran was preparing for an Israeli response this week.

The Islamic Revolutionary de Guard Corps., Iran's paramiltary force, has enacted emergency measures for its facilities across Syria, said a Syrian government adviser and a Syrian activist from the eastern city of Deir Ezzour who was briefed by the IRGC's Syrian proxies. Some IRGC members have evacuated their bases in Syria and others are doing so at night when Israeli strikes are most likely, the people said. Only a few soldiers are staying behind to defend arsenals of weapons.

Fridman, the King's College scholar, said Israel needs to pivot from the idea that it can perpetually deter its enemies. "Since the establishment of Israel, it's been moving from one conflict to another, assuming if we beat them hard enough they will stop attacking us," Fridman said. "It doesn't work. We need to find a political solution."